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Latest Tropical Weather Summary

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 06:31:20 +0100

Friday, November 9, 2012... 1:42pm (PST)

As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility...
An are of convection was located about 1,300 kms East of Samar island...
More discussion on this system will be given later...

courtesy of NOAA

The major weather system affecting the country are Northeast Monsoon and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (I.T.C.Z.)... Northeast Monsoon (a.k.a. Amihan) is affecting Northern Luzon right now... This will bring partly cloudy skies with passing, scattered light rainshowers in the said area... Light to moderate rainfall with total accumulated amount of about 40-50mm within the next 24 hours is expected in Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora... Central Luzon will experience fair weather with isolated rainshowers that is associated with the moisture being brought by Amihan... 10-20mm of accumulated rainshower within the next 24 hours is possible in the said area... Southern Luzon and Bicol Region will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered albeit passing rainshowers due to the cloudiness associated with ITCZ ... An average of 10-40mm of 24 hours accumulated rainfall is expected in the said area, with the exception of Camarines Norte where 50-60mm of rainfall is expected... Visayas and Mindanao will generally have cloudy skies with moderate rainshowers due to ITCZ... An accumulated rainfall amount of 30-60mm is expected in the next 24 hours...

The light to moderate wind will generally be coming from the NE and the seaboards will be moderate, with the exception of the seaboards in Northern Luzon where rough seas is expected...

The area of convection outside PAR, NE of Palau is still trying to become organized... Convection is present in the said area with a modest divergence... Sea-surface temperature in the said area is warm (30°C)... The system is also in an area with low to moderate wind shear ... majority of the forecast models are not developing this system, on the other hand, they are suggesting a development near Mindanao... The Mindanao scenario shows a development of a disturbance (LPA) near Surigao... Over-all, there is only a 20% chance of a tropical cyclone formation within PAR in the next 48 hours...

-RLM

Latest Tropical Weather Summary

Thu, 08 Nov 2012 09:52:36 +0100

Thursday, November 8, 2012. 5:23p.m. (PST)

As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. But a low pressure system is present outside PAR, about 1,600kms East of Northern Mindanao..

Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone will cause moderate-heavy rainfall in Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.. 40-80mm of accumulated rain (24 hours) can be expected in Bicol Region.. Samar and Leyte islands will recieve as much as 90mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours.. Panay Island, especially the northern tip will get as much as 100mm of rain within the next 24 hours.. There is a moderate risk of minor flooding in the mentioned areas.. The rest of the country will receive 40-60mm of rain in the next 24 hours..

Northeasterly windflow is starting to creep into the island of Luzon and colder morning temperature is expected.. Amihan will also bring light to moderate rainfall to Northern Luzon.. As the High Pressure Area on mainland China moves eastward, expect a stronger NEasterly windflow and an over-all colder temperature in the next 3 days..

Some of the forecast models are showing AT LEAST a development of a tropical disturbance east of Mindanao.. Models are in very poor agreement in the timing and location of the development of this tropical system.. CMC, NGX and GFSO are showing a short-lived system well east of Mindanao.. Only CMC brings the system into Mindanao island by Saturday.. The tricky part of the forecast model is that it is showing ANOTHER tropical disturbance development in the Sulu Sea.. There is poor agreement on the location of the disturbance but the models bring the system westward, crossing Palawan and running straight to Vietnam.. My very best conclusion from the models is that a low pressure system may possibly track towards Mindanao, will weaken, and then after crossing Mindanao and emerging in Sulu Sea, will slightly gain strength to be called, at the least, a strong tropical disturbance.. If ever the system in forecast strengthened into a full-blown tropical depression, a separate discussion will be given in the Typhoon Forecast..

I'll post a new blog tomorrow..

-RLM

Latest Weather Summary Series #10

Mon, 19 Sep 2011 03:41:23 +0100

As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present within the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

credits to:NOAA

credits to: PAGASA

Meanwhile, Southwest Monsoon blowing across Luzon and Visayas. Wind convergence affecting Mindanao.

Majority of the country will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshower and thunderstorms. Light to moderate rainfall can be expected in these areas. The bulk of the rainfall is expected to affect western portion of Central and Southern Luzon as well as the rest of Visayas. 50-60mm of 24hr. accumulated rainfall can be expected to affect Western Luzon especially near the NCR area. The same amount of rainfall can also be expected to fall on Eastern Visayas. Minor flooding and sudden landslide may happen especially in the areas where the soil is still saturated with rainwater.

Albay: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshower and thunderstorm. Light-moderate rainfall is expected. 30-40mm of 24hr. accumulated rainfall is expected in Albay. Chance of rain: 70-80%. Temperature range: 25-32°C.

-RLM

September 19, 2011. 11:00am PHT

Latest Weather Summary Series #9

Sat, 17 Sep 2011 06:08:20 +0100

As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present within the Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR). TS ROKE lurking outside PAR; about 40 km. N of the PAR line. May enter PAR briefly but will exit again. Not a threat to our country.

Meanwhile, Monsoon trough affecting Northern and Central Luzon. The moisture connected with the monsoon trough and further enhanced by TS ROKE covering much of the country.

Northern and Central Luzon, especially the areas facing west, will experience overcast skies with widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms. 50-60mm of accumulated rainfall can be expected in these areas in the next 24 hours. Two days from now, rainfall will intensify with as much as 100mm of rainfall for Region 1 and 60-90mm of rain for Central Luzon. This rainfall may cause some flooding especially in the areas where the soil is saturated; the areas where the flooding has not receded will face the threat of higher flooding. People in landslide and flood prone area should monitor the latest weather updates and be vigilant as well as careful. Always follow the orders of LGU's and other authorities to ensure your safety and to avoid casualties.

The rest of the country will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. These areas will experience light to a little bit moderate at times. Areas where thunderstorms had formed may expect sudden abrupt heavy rainshower but will not last long.

Albay: Mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshower and thunderstorms. Light rainfall may happen. 30% chance of rain. Temperature range: 23-32°C.

I'll be back on Monday.

-RLM

September 17, 2011. 2:00pm PHT.

Latest Weather Summary Series # 8

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 07:54:01 +0100

There is no tropical cyclone present within the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
Meanwhile, TS ROKE-enhance Southwest Monsoon affecting a large part of Luzon. Monsoon trough affecting Southern Luzon and Visayas. Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone affecting Mindanao. The LPA East of Batanes is now being absorbed by TS ROKE. No longer a threat to our country.

Large part of Luzon, Eastern Visayas and large part of Mindanao will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Moderate to at times heavy rains should be expected in these areas. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. light rains are expected in these areas except in regions having thunderstorms; abrupt heavy rains can be expected here.

Albay: Mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Light rains can be expected. Chance of rain: 20%. Temperature range: 24-32°C.

*Sorry for this incomplete blog. There is a lack of weather imagery and graphical representation because the internet connection here is temporarily down and not functioning properly. The next blog will be like my previous blogs.

-RLM

September 16, 2011. 4:00pm PHT

Latest Weather Summary Series #7

Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:04:30 +0100

As of now, Tropical Storm ROKE (18W/Onyok) had briefly re-entered PAR and is now on its way on going out again. One model guidance (GFS) is showing another possible re-entry that might happen next week, possibly Monday.But JTWC is stating that this is highly UNLIKELY (and i believe JTWC's reasoning). Despite of this, TS ROKE (18W/Onyok) is not expected to directly affect the country.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was located at about 200km. E, NE of Basco, Batanes (based on the data from JMA). This LPA is apparently stationary but JMA is indicating a SE movement. (more discussion will be allocated for the LPA briefly)
Wind convergence affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Southwest monsoon is starting to be pulled by the tandem of the LPA and TS ROKE.

The western part of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will be mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Cloudy and overcast skies with widespread rains is expected on Northern Luzon. 50-60mm of 24hrs. accumulated rain is possible on Western Luzon with 80-90mm might be experienced by people living in the Extreme Northern Luzon. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy sky with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Light to a little bit moderate rains can be expected in these areas.

It is also worthy to note that SW monsoon and much moisture is now being pulled by the LPA and TS ROKE. For the next 3 days, Western Luzon will take the brunt of the effect the enhanced SW monsoon. 24hrs. accumulated rainfall as high as 100mm is possible in this areas. People in these areas should monitor the latest weather conditions and follow the advice of national government the LGU's to avoid casualties. Flashfloods and landslides might happen especially to areas in which the soil is still saturated with rainwater and where the vegetation growing in the mountains is badly depleted.

The Low Pressure Area located 150kms. NE of Basco, Batanes is trying to consolidate as of now. There is a moderate amount of spin and the SST is at a toasty 30°C. Wind shear in this area is at light-moderate. There is also a lot of humidity and water vapor in the area. Convection is still present but thunderstorm presence is decreasing near the supposed LLCC and thereby exposing its possible center. But despite of the conducive environment, the LPA will have a bunch of trouble consolidating because of its proximity to TS ROKE. TS ROKE might interfere with its development and JMA is showing that TS ROKE will pull the LPA first into a SEward movement then on a more Eward movement. Given this possibility, the LPA is not expected to move closer to Northern Luzon. The LPA will bring some moderate rainshower to Northern Luzon and expected to pull the SW monsoon. JMA is categorizing the LPA as a tropical depression but given that it has not lingered and it is a bit disorganized, i doubt hte JMA's judgement. The LPA has a 30-40% chance of becoming a full-pledged tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

-RLM

September 14, 2011. 5:00pm PHT.

Tropical Cyclone Watch Series #2

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 02:09:40 +0100

Tropical Depression ONYOK [18W]

Latest Data:
    Location: 1,170 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes (PAGASA)
    Coordinates: 21.4°N, 134.7°E (PAGASA)
    Wind strength: 55kph (PAGASA and JMA)
    Accumulated rainfall near the center: 150-180mm (PAGASA and typhoon2000.com)
    Movement: (present) Moving W at 7kph (PAGASA)
                     (forecast) WNW @ 4-7kph (PAGASA and typhoon2000.com)

Links:    PAGASA: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

    typhoon2000.com: http://www.typhoon2000.ph

    JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc

    JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Forecast models:

credits to: PAGASA

credits to: JTWC

credits to: wunderground.com

credits to: JMA

credits to: Tropical Storm Risk

satellite imagery:

Discussion: Tropical Depression ONYOK [18W] was located (2am) at 1,170kms. NE of Basco, Batanes with winds of 55 kph. It is moving W to WNW at a speed of 7kph. Currently, a strong subtropical ridge (a.k.a. HPA) is steering TD ONYOK [18W]. Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) and low-moderate wind shear will help the system to develop, although meagerly, because TD ONYOK [18W] is lacking some good outflow especially in the western and northwestern side of the system. Over-all, the system is having a nice convection and thunderstorm presence but the main convection is to the east of the LLCC. Unless ample amount of convection starts to build near the LLCC, TD ONYOK [18W] will have a hard time strengthening. JTWC is forecasting this to become a tropical storm tomorrow (65kph) tomorrow morning or afternoon. It will exit PAR on Thursday afternoon as a borderline strong tropical storm-typhoon strength (115kph)

    Various computer guidance and forecast models are showing a little agreement on their forecast for TD ONYOK [18W]. As JTWC had stated, they are having "unusually poor model guidance." JTWC had a fair forecast for the system and its track but given the strength of the STR/HPA, i am favoring a more Westward track that will bring the TD a bit south of Okinawa. A long wave trough (a LPA on higher latitude) will dig the STR and will cause weakness to the ridge. This will cause a "hole in the wall" that TD ONYOK [18W] will follow thru. This will bring the TD into WNW to NW direction towards Eastern China. After this, uncertainty arouses if whether the trough will effectively relocated the STR/HPA or another STR/HPA will develop after the trough had passed. Given the first scenario, we can expect a poleward turn and will bring ONYOK/18W closer to Korea and Japan. The second scenario will push ONYOK/18W closer to Taiwan and China. The most probable forecast as of now is that ONYOK/18W will inch closer to Taiwan and will pass to the East of China, a little farther to the west than the forecast of JTWC. Given this scenario, there will be no direct effect to the Philippines.

    But given the slow forward motion of ONYOk/18W, SW monsoon will be enhanced and will bring a lot of rain to Western Luzon especially Central and Southern Luzon and Region 1. For the next 2-4 days, rainfall accumulation will amount to 60-90mm/day.CaLaBarZon, NCR, Region 1 and Batanes will take the brunt of the enhanced SW monsoon. This volume of rain will cause flashfloods and landslides especially to areas where the soil is still saturated with rainwater. Everyone living in this area, especially in the flood and landslide prone area, are advised to be alert and be on guard. Follow the warnings and instructions of the national government, LGU's, NDRRMC and PAGASA so that life may not be lost..

-RLM

September 13, 2011. 10:00am PHT

Latest Weather Summary Series #6

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 01:10:32 +0100

As of now, there is 1 tropical cyclone present within PAR. For more details, please view the Tropical Cyclone Watch.

Meanwhile, Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.

Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. 40-50mm of rain is expected in these areas for the next 24hours. The bulk of the thunderstorm associated with the ITCZ is now covering Western Minadanao and Southern Visayas. Sudden heavy rainfall can happen here that may cause slight flooding in the said area. The rest of the country will have fair weather, partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. Sudden heavy rainshower is also expected for the rest of the country because of local convection. Minor flooding might happen because of this. But nonetheless, rainshowers associated with local convection will not last long and will not cause major damage.

Albay: Mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds will blow coming from the West. Light-moderate rains (24 hours rainfall accumulation: around 30-40mm) can be expected. Chance of rain: 20-30%. Temperature range: 22-32 °C.

-RLM

September 13, 2011. 9:00am PHT.

Tropical Cyclone Watch

Mon, 12 Sep 2011 05:14:51 +0100

Tropical Depression 18W [pre-ONYOK]

Present Data: 1550kms. East,Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.3N, 135.0E (JMA)
Wind strength: 55kph
Movement: W @ 10kph

Links: PAGASA: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

typhoon2000.com: http://www.typhoon2000.ph

JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc

JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Forecast models:
credits to: wunderground.com

credits to: JTWC

credits to: Tropical Storm Risk

credits to: NOAA; link: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2011091112.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif

satellite image:

credits to: NOAA

satellite loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/flash-ir4.html
credits to: NOAA

Discussion: TD 18W is expected to turn WNW slowly because of the strong subtropical ridge (a.k.a. HPA) located to the N of the system. This STR/HPA is expected to weaken, therefore allowing TD 18W to turn more WNW and then to the NW. Majority of the computer models agree with this scenario. Basing from this, the system is expected to approach Okinawa area on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. After this, a recurvature scenario is expected to occur. Following this scenario, it is safe to say that TD 18W will not directly affect our country. It will just cross the PAR line today and expected to exit on Wednesday evening. Aside from pulling some moisture and enhancing the SW monsoon, there will be no major threat from the system itself.

-RLM

September 12, 2011. 1pm.

I'll be back either tomorrow or on Wednesday. depending on the development of this system.

Latest Weather Summary Series #5

Mon, 12 Sep 2011 04:36:57 +0100

As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present within PAR.
Meanwhile, monsoon trough together with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone affecting Luzon. This weather system is expected to bring light rains to Western Luzon especially to Region 1. Other than this, there is no other major weather system affecting the country. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening.

Albay: Partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorm.Light rainshowers is possible. Temperature range: 22-32°C.

-RLM

September 12, 2011. 1:00pm