Tropical Cyclone Watch
Posted by Roel Morelos on Monday, September 12, 2011
Tropical Depression 18W [pre-ONYOK]
Present Data: 1550kms. East,Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.3N, 135.0E (JMA)
Wind strength: 55kph
Movement: W @ 10kph
Links: PAGASA: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
typhoon2000.com: http://www.typhoon2000.ph
JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc
JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
Forecast models:
credits to: wunderground.com
credits to: JTWC
credits to: Tropical Storm Risk
credits to: NOAA; link: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2011091112.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif
satellite image:
credits to: NOAA
satellite loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/flash-ir4.html
credits to: NOAA
Discussion: TD 18W is expected to turn WNW slowly because of the strong subtropical ridge (a.k.a. HPA) located to the N of the system. This STR/HPA is expected to weaken, therefore allowing TD 18W to turn more WNW and then to the NW. Majority of the computer models agree with this scenario. Basing from this, the system is expected to approach Okinawa area on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. After this, a recurvature scenario is expected to occur. Following this scenario, it is safe to say that TD 18W will not directly affect our country. It will just cross the PAR line today and expected to exit on Wednesday evening. Aside from pulling some moisture and enhancing the SW monsoon, there will be no major threat from the system itself.
-RLM
September 12, 2011. 1pm.
I'll be back either tomorrow or on Wednesday. depending on the development of this system.
Present Data: 1550kms. East,Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.3N, 135.0E (JMA)
Wind strength: 55kph
Movement: W @ 10kph
Links: PAGASA: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
typhoon2000.com: http://www.typhoon2000.ph
JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc
JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
Forecast models:
credits to: wunderground.com
credits to: JTWC
credits to: Tropical Storm Risk
credits to: NOAA; link: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2011091112.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif
satellite image:
credits to: NOAA
satellite loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/flash-ir4.html
credits to: NOAA
Discussion: TD 18W is expected to turn WNW slowly because of the strong subtropical ridge (a.k.a. HPA) located to the N of the system. This STR/HPA is expected to weaken, therefore allowing TD 18W to turn more WNW and then to the NW. Majority of the computer models agree with this scenario. Basing from this, the system is expected to approach Okinawa area on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. After this, a recurvature scenario is expected to occur. Following this scenario, it is safe to say that TD 18W will not directly affect our country. It will just cross the PAR line today and expected to exit on Wednesday evening. Aside from pulling some moisture and enhancing the SW monsoon, there will be no major threat from the system itself.
-RLM
September 12, 2011. 1pm.
I'll be back either tomorrow or on Wednesday. depending on the development of this system.