Latest Weather Summary Series # 4
September 10, 2011
As of now, there is no active tropical cyclone present within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Meanwhile, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone continues to affect Southern Luzon including Palawan and Western Visayas. This weather system is causing mostly cloudy skies with possible light-moderate rains to Palawan, Mindoro, Panay and CaLaBarZon area today. People living in Metro Manila, Quezon province, Aurora and Palawan should be prepared for possible flooding and landslides caused by the convective acitvity connected with the ITCZ.
There are two areas of interest for today. The first is the developing area of convection which is almost 600km. East of Batanes. As of now, this system has a small chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. But given the high sea surface temperature in the area and moderate wind shear in the area some intensification might be expected. This system is moving to the WNW towards Taiwan. This may not cause any direct effect to the country but the moisture it will pull will certainly cause some moderate-heavy rains in Western Luzon.
The second area of interest is still outside PAR but has a very good chance of entering PAR. JMA had classified this system as a tropical depression (which i doubt given its present organization and strength) while JTWC called this system 91W INVEST. The JTWC is giving this a MEDIUM chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours Link: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt. The analysis of JTWC for this system is very good. Due to the broadness of the system, it will take a little more time before it finally consolidate into a more unified system with a good circulation. Other environmental conditions is conducive for the development of the system. JMA is forecasting the system to enter PAR possibly on Monday. It is interesting to note that a subtropical ridge (a.k.a. High Pressure Area) is steering (which means dictating on which direction the system will move) 91W. The stronger the STR/HPA the more westward this will move which means the greater threat that it will pose to our country. But so far, this system, given its present location, is not expected to hit directly our country. This system might possibly move towards Southern Japan-Eastern China area.
I'll be back on Monday.
-RLM
September10, 2011. 2:30 pm.
Meanwhile, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone continues to affect Southern Luzon including Palawan and Western Visayas. This weather system is causing mostly cloudy skies with possible light-moderate rains to Palawan, Mindoro, Panay and CaLaBarZon area today. People living in Metro Manila, Quezon province, Aurora and Palawan should be prepared for possible flooding and landslides caused by the convective acitvity connected with the ITCZ.
There are two areas of interest for today. The first is the developing area of convection which is almost 600km. East of Batanes. As of now, this system has a small chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. But given the high sea surface temperature in the area and moderate wind shear in the area some intensification might be expected. This system is moving to the WNW towards Taiwan. This may not cause any direct effect to the country but the moisture it will pull will certainly cause some moderate-heavy rains in Western Luzon.
The second area of interest is still outside PAR but has a very good chance of entering PAR. JMA had classified this system as a tropical depression (which i doubt given its present organization and strength) while JTWC called this system 91W INVEST. The JTWC is giving this a MEDIUM chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours Link: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt. The analysis of JTWC for this system is very good. Due to the broadness of the system, it will take a little more time before it finally consolidate into a more unified system with a good circulation. Other environmental conditions is conducive for the development of the system. JMA is forecasting the system to enter PAR possibly on Monday. It is interesting to note that a subtropical ridge (a.k.a. High Pressure Area) is steering (which means dictating on which direction the system will move) 91W. The stronger the STR/HPA the more westward this will move which means the greater threat that it will pose to our country. But so far, this system, given its present location, is not expected to hit directly our country. This system might possibly move towards Southern Japan-Eastern China area.
I'll be back on Monday.
-RLM
September10, 2011. 2:30 pm.
Posted by Roel Morelos.