Latest Weather Summary Series #7
Posted by Roel Morelos on Wednesday, September 14, 2011
As of now, Tropical Storm ROKE (18W/Onyok) had briefly re-entered PAR and is now on its way on going out again. One model guidance (GFS) is showing another possible re-entry that might happen next week, possibly Monday.But JTWC is stating that this is highly UNLIKELY (and i believe JTWC's reasoning). Despite of this, TS ROKE (18W/Onyok) is not expected to directly affect the country.
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was located at about 200km. E, NE of Basco, Batanes (based on the data from JMA). This LPA is apparently stationary but JMA is indicating a SE movement. (more discussion will be allocated for the LPA briefly)
Wind convergence affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Southwest monsoon is starting to be pulled by the tandem of the LPA and TS ROKE.
The western part of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will be mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Cloudy and overcast skies with widespread rains is expected on Northern Luzon. 50-60mm of 24hrs. accumulated rain is possible on Western Luzon with 80-90mm might be experienced by people living in the Extreme Northern Luzon. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy sky with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Light to a little bit moderate rains can be expected in these areas.
It is also worthy to note that SW monsoon and much moisture is now being pulled by the LPA and TS ROKE. For the next 3 days, Western Luzon will take the brunt of the effect the enhanced SW monsoon. 24hrs. accumulated rainfall as high as 100mm is possible in this areas. People in these areas should monitor the latest weather conditions and follow the advice of national government the LGU's to avoid casualties. Flashfloods and landslides might happen especially to areas in which the soil is still saturated with rainwater and where the vegetation growing in the mountains is badly depleted.
The Low Pressure Area located 150kms. NE of Basco, Batanes is trying to consolidate as of now. There is a moderate amount of spin and the SST is at a toasty 30°C. Wind shear in this area is at light-moderate. There is also a lot of humidity and water vapor in the area. Convection is still present but thunderstorm presence is decreasing near the supposed LLCC and thereby exposing its possible center. But despite of the conducive environment, the LPA will have a bunch of trouble consolidating because of its proximity to TS ROKE. TS ROKE might interfere with its development and JMA is showing that TS ROKE will pull the LPA first into a SEward movement then on a more Eward movement. Given this possibility, the LPA is not expected to move closer to Northern Luzon. The LPA will bring some moderate rainshower to Northern Luzon and expected to pull the SW monsoon. JMA is categorizing the LPA as a tropical depression but given that it has not lingered and it is a bit disorganized, i doubt hte JMA's judgement. The LPA has a 30-40% chance of becoming a full-pledged tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
-RLM
September 14, 2011. 5:00pm PHT.
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was located at about 200km. E, NE of Basco, Batanes (based on the data from JMA). This LPA is apparently stationary but JMA is indicating a SE movement. (more discussion will be allocated for the LPA briefly)
Wind convergence affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Southwest monsoon is starting to be pulled by the tandem of the LPA and TS ROKE.
The western part of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will be mostly cloudy with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. Cloudy and overcast skies with widespread rains is expected on Northern Luzon. 50-60mm of 24hrs. accumulated rain is possible on Western Luzon with 80-90mm might be experienced by people living in the Extreme Northern Luzon. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy sky with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Light to a little bit moderate rains can be expected in these areas.
It is also worthy to note that SW monsoon and much moisture is now being pulled by the LPA and TS ROKE. For the next 3 days, Western Luzon will take the brunt of the effect the enhanced SW monsoon. 24hrs. accumulated rainfall as high as 100mm is possible in this areas. People in these areas should monitor the latest weather conditions and follow the advice of national government the LGU's to avoid casualties. Flashfloods and landslides might happen especially to areas in which the soil is still saturated with rainwater and where the vegetation growing in the mountains is badly depleted.
The Low Pressure Area located 150kms. NE of Basco, Batanes is trying to consolidate as of now. There is a moderate amount of spin and the SST is at a toasty 30°C. Wind shear in this area is at light-moderate. There is also a lot of humidity and water vapor in the area. Convection is still present but thunderstorm presence is decreasing near the supposed LLCC and thereby exposing its possible center. But despite of the conducive environment, the LPA will have a bunch of trouble consolidating because of its proximity to TS ROKE. TS ROKE might interfere with its development and JMA is showing that TS ROKE will pull the LPA first into a SEward movement then on a more Eward movement. Given this possibility, the LPA is not expected to move closer to Northern Luzon. The LPA will bring some moderate rainshower to Northern Luzon and expected to pull the SW monsoon. JMA is categorizing the LPA as a tropical depression but given that it has not lingered and it is a bit disorganized, i doubt hte JMA's judgement. The LPA has a 30-40% chance of becoming a full-pledged tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
-RLM
September 14, 2011. 5:00pm PHT.