Friday, November 9, 2012... 1:42pm (PST)


As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility... 
An are of convection was located about 1,300 kms East of Samar island...
More discussion on this system will be given later...

courtesy of NOAA


The major weather system affecting the country are Northeast Monsoon and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (I.T.C.Z.)... Northeast Monsoon (a.k.a. Amihan) is affecting Northern Luzon right now... This will bring partly cloudy skies with passing, scattered light rainshowers in the said area... Light to moderate rainfall with total accumulated amount of about 40-50mm within the next 24 hours is expected in Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela and  Aurora... Central Luzon will experience fair weather with isolated rainshowers that is associated with the moisture being brought by Amihan... 10-20mm of accumulated rainshower within the next 24 hours is possible in the said area... Southern Luzon and Bicol Region will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered albeit passing rainshowers due to the cloudiness associated with ITCZ ...  An average of 10-40mm of 24 hours accumulated rainfall is expected in the said area, with the exception of Camarines Norte where 50-60mm of rainfall is expected... Visayas and Mindanao will generally have cloudy skies with moderate rainshowers due to ITCZ... An accumulated rainfall amount of 30-60mm is expected in the next 24 hours... 

The light to moderate wind will generally be coming from the NE and the seaboards will be moderate, with the exception of the seaboards in Northern Luzon where rough seas is expected...
  
The area of convection outside PAR, NE of Palau is still trying to become organized... Convection is present in the said area with a modest divergence... Sea-surface temperature in the said area is warm (30°C)... The system is also in an area with low to moderate wind shear ... majority of the forecast models are not developing this system, on the other hand, they are suggesting a development near Mindanao... The Mindanao scenario shows a development of a disturbance (LPA) near Surigao... Over-all, there is only a 20% chance of a tropical cyclone formation within PAR in the next 48 hours...

-RLM