Latest Tropical Weather Summary
Posted by Roel Morelos on Thursday, November 8, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012. 5:23p.m. (PST)
As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. But a low pressure system is present outside PAR, about 1,600kms East of Northern Mindanao..
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone will cause moderate-heavy rainfall in Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.. 40-80mm of accumulated rain (24 hours) can be expected in Bicol Region.. Samar and Leyte islands will recieve as much as 90mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours.. Panay Island, especially the northern tip will get as much as 100mm of rain within the next 24 hours.. There is a moderate risk of minor flooding in the mentioned areas.. The rest of the country will receive 40-60mm of rain in the next 24 hours..
Northeasterly windflow is starting to creep into the island of Luzon and colder morning temperature is expected.. Amihan will also bring light to moderate rainfall to Northern Luzon.. As the High Pressure Area on mainland China moves eastward, expect a stronger NEasterly windflow and an over-all colder temperature in the next 3 days..
Some of the forecast models are showing AT LEAST a development of a tropical disturbance east of Mindanao.. Models are in very poor agreement in the timing and location of the development of this tropical system.. CMC, NGX and GFSO are showing a short-lived system well east of Mindanao.. Only CMC brings the system into Mindanao island by Saturday.. The tricky part of the forecast model is that it is showing ANOTHER tropical disturbance development in the Sulu Sea.. There is poor agreement on the location of the disturbance but the models bring the system westward, crossing Palawan and running straight to Vietnam.. My very best conclusion from the models is that a low pressure system may possibly track towards Mindanao, will weaken, and then after crossing Mindanao and emerging in Sulu Sea, will slightly gain strength to be called, at the least, a strong tropical disturbance.. If ever the system in forecast strengthened into a full-blown tropical depression, a separate discussion will be given in the Typhoon Forecast..
I'll post a new blog tomorrow..
-RLM
As of now, there is no tropical cyclone present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. But a low pressure system is present outside PAR, about 1,600kms East of Northern Mindanao..
Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone will cause moderate-heavy rainfall in Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao.. 40-80mm of accumulated rain (24 hours) can be expected in Bicol Region.. Samar and Leyte islands will recieve as much as 90mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours.. Panay Island, especially the northern tip will get as much as 100mm of rain within the next 24 hours.. There is a moderate risk of minor flooding in the mentioned areas.. The rest of the country will receive 40-60mm of rain in the next 24 hours..
Northeasterly windflow is starting to creep into the island of Luzon and colder morning temperature is expected.. Amihan will also bring light to moderate rainfall to Northern Luzon.. As the High Pressure Area on mainland China moves eastward, expect a stronger NEasterly windflow and an over-all colder temperature in the next 3 days..
Some of the forecast models are showing AT LEAST a development of a tropical disturbance east of Mindanao.. Models are in very poor agreement in the timing and location of the development of this tropical system.. CMC, NGX and GFSO are showing a short-lived system well east of Mindanao.. Only CMC brings the system into Mindanao island by Saturday.. The tricky part of the forecast model is that it is showing ANOTHER tropical disturbance development in the Sulu Sea.. There is poor agreement on the location of the disturbance but the models bring the system westward, crossing Palawan and running straight to Vietnam.. My very best conclusion from the models is that a low pressure system may possibly track towards Mindanao, will weaken, and then after crossing Mindanao and emerging in Sulu Sea, will slightly gain strength to be called, at the least, a strong tropical disturbance.. If ever the system in forecast strengthened into a full-blown tropical depression, a separate discussion will be given in the Typhoon Forecast..
I'll post a new blog tomorrow..
-RLM